The Biggest ACC Myths this season #3

How do myths grow?  They're repeated over and over again.  ACC folks have been hearing this tale for 5 consecutive seasons.  For the last 4 years its been no myth but cold hard fact.  Which is why nobody seems to have noticed that this year it just is no longer true.

Myth #3: This Duke team will fade down the stretch

We've seen this before right?  Duke comes out and dominates November and December.  It gets out to a good start in the ACC, but then the wheels come off.  The Duke fade is about 2 academic papers away from being considered a scientifically proven phenomenon.  Even Duke's own student paper recently acknowledged its existence (in this excellent article.)  Pat Forde summed up the prevailing belief in his Forde Minutes article a few weeks ago:

This is yet another good Duke team, with yet another set of apparent flaws. The big men (the young Plumlee brothers, Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek) are still nothing special. The leading men, Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler, are still overworked. (Scheyer hasn't played fewer than 36 minutes in a game since December, and Singler has gone the full 40 in each of Duke's last two games.)

The Minutes will believe Duke might have a chance to win it all when it sees the Blue Devils actually advance past the Sweet 16 for the first time since Chris Duhon was in uniform. It makes sense.  If there's a pattern, why expect anything different this time.  Its not like this team has bigger stars than the 2006 team that fizzled in the end.  They don't have a game changing athlete like Gerald Henderson was last year.  And they don't have a dominant scoring big man for the 4th year in a row.  If there was any doubt that this team is flawed, the not-as-close as the score loss to Georgetown ended it.

That said there is some evidence that this team is finally different.  While it has had issues, they appear to be getting better, rather than worse as the year goes on.  The idea that Duke's big men are nothing special has been shaken by Brian Zoubek's recent (and completely unexpected) rise to rebounding prominence.  In the past 7 games Zoubek has been averaging 6.2 pts and 9 rebounds a game in only 21 minutes per game, including 2 16+ rebounding performances in games against Duke's 2 main ACC challengers (Maryland and Vtech)  At the same time Krzyzewski has also loosened his bench a bit, with Ryan Kelly and Andre Dawkins getting some recent burn after a period of time apparently spent in the coaching staff's doghouse.  While its still statistically insignificant so far, the Duke paper article does point out that this team's correlation is actually positive.  They're getting better as time goes on.

Ken Pomeroy's numbers back up this idea.  Duke has been slowly rising in his efficiency rankings throughout the season and now sits at #1, with the top ranked offense and 12th ranked defense.  Duke has been high in his rankings before, but each year they've slowly slipped down a notch as the season closes up.  The key this year?  Duke is the #7 offensive rebounding team in the country.  Whereas in years past a cold shooting night would doom Coach K's collection of jump shooters, this year they're getting as many shots as they need to get going.  Virginia Tech can give testimony to this, as they repeatedly forced bad Duke shots on Sunday night, only to watch as Duke got a rebound, kicked it out, and nailed a wide open 3 pointer.  This is not the best shooting Duke team ever.  But between rebounds and the way their veteran backcourt takes care of the ball, they certainly get to take the most shots of any Duke team of recent vintage. 

Finally and most importantly, this team is not relying on a pair of stars like the flawed 2006 powerhouse, or a group of unproven younger players as they have the last 3 years.  This is a team with 3 legitimate veteran stars.  Singler, Smith, and Scheyer are all veterans with legitimate cases for first team All-ACC.  Since losing to Wisconsin at the beginning of December, Scheyer has gone for 15+ pts in all but 3 games.  In those 3 games, Smith compensated each time by scoring 20+.  After a slow start to the season Singler has scored 18+ in 8 of his last 11 games, including a 30 point explosion in a critical revenge game against Georgia Tech and double doubles in both of his past 2 games.  While its true that Duke relies nearly completely on them for its offense, these 3 players provide a diverse and consistent enough threat that this year the writers at the Chronicle may get to extend their scatterplot all the way through April.

The Biggest ACC Myths this season #2

We now come to our second biggest myth in the ACC this year.  This one has particularly been expounded in Chapel Hill, where desperation and pride may be blinding people to facts.



Myth #2: UNC will be fine next year

This is the natural progression of the "UNC will turn things around soon" myth that persisted for most of the first half of the ACC season until being officially shattered when they lost to Duke for the first time in over 2 years last week.  Now instead fans are turning their eyes to next year.  And their are certainly reasons for optimism.  A savior is on the way.  They still have one of the best coaches in basketball and an embarrassment of McDonald's all americans on the roster.  And quite simply, they're North Carolina.  They never stay down for long.  That said, the solution may not be that simple.
Let me be clear.  We're not saying that next year will be as bad as this year.  Its highly doubtful that UNC will be playing a game to stay out of the bottom of the ACC standings in mid February next year.  That said, to expect a return to national prominence may be expecting too much.

This year's Heels team has suffered from a lack of steady ball handling, a lack of commitment to defense, a void in the area of veteran leadership, and somewhat shockingly a seeming lack of top shelf talent.   Only one of these has an immediate solution in sight.  The final issue will certainly be partially resolved next year as UNC brings ins 3 top-level recruits including #1 ranked Harrison Barnes.  However there could be plenty of damage in that department as well.  If Ed Davis and John Henson bolt early (and both are projected as possible lottery picks) the Heels will be relying almost solely upon that recruiting haul to reestablish themselves.  And as they've learned this year, hype and high recruiting rankings do not guarantee anything for the next year.  Some will point to Kentucky's success this year as a sign that with the #1 recruit in the class and a few other highly ranked freshmen, anything is possible.  However it should be pointed out that UK returned the preseason SEC player of the year in Patrick Patterson as well as several solid young role players.  It should be noted too that Kentucky last year was not as bad as UNC this year, and UNC's recruiting class doesn't match UK's from last year, which was among the best ever.
If Davis and Henson leave, the best player UNC will be returning next year is the talented but injury prone Tyler Zeller, a big guy who has never scored double figures in an ACC game and who's career high for rebounds is 7.  For a team with defensive issues to begin with, they would be losing their 2 best defenders.  And unless Kendall Marshall comes in ready to play from Day 1, Larry Drew would still be the point guard.  So be hopeful UNC fans, help is on the way.  But if Davis and Henson bolt this summer, don't look for a miracle turnaround.  This is a fix-up job that may take a while.

The Biggest ACC Myths this season #1

It has been a while since we've been able to post, but we're making up for it here by debunking the 3 biggest myths that have grown up over this ACC season over the next 3 days.  Enjoy.

Myth #1: Duke is the only ACC team that could make a deep run in March

Depending on how you feel about the Blue Devils, this myth could be rephrased as "No ACC team can make a deep run in March"  Since Georgia Tech has shown that they cannot be trusted at any time, and UNC can be shown that they can only be relied upon to get worse as the season goes on, all of the ACCs postseason hopes have fallen upon Duke.

However there is another team in the ACC that is shaping up as a legitimate NCAA threat.  This team has won 7 of their last 10, and hasn't lost a home game since November.   They have 5 wins against likely tournament teams, including a road win over a current top 15 team (in the coaches poll).  They have a senior point guard with a flair for the dramatic, a nice collection of veteran players who know their roles, probably the only freshman in the ACC who's exceeding expectations, and an ACC POY candidate at forward.  Their mettle has been tested with 4 overtime wins this season, and they gave Duke the best game anyone has given them in Cameron all season.  Yes folks we're talking Wake Forest.

After an embarrassing loss to William and Mary in November, and another embarrassing loss to Miami to open the new year, WFU fell off most people's radar as a serious ACC contender.  People questioned Dino Gaudio's coaching ability, and felt that the team had lost 2 much talent from last year.  But Wake has quietly emerged as Duke's main contender for the ACC crown, and the conferences second best bet to make noise in March.  Ken Pomeroy's efficiency rankings rate Wake as one of the top 25 defensive teams in the country.  Their win at Gonzaga shows that they can play with the best teams in the country, and the 4 overtime wins (3 against likely tournament teams) show that they can handle the pressure of the tournament.  This is a team that is unlikely to be phased by the tournament, and a great pick to pull an upset or two when the calendar turns to March.